Working Papers
Importing the Opioid Crisis? International Trade and Fentanyl Overdoses
[NBER WP 31885] (with T. Moore and W. Olney)
The U.S. opioid crisis is now driven by fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid that currently accounts for 90% of all opioid deaths. Fentanyl is smuggled from abroad, with little evidence on how this happens. We show that a substantial amount of fentanyl smuggling occurs via legal trade flows, with a positive relationship between state-level imports and drug overdoses that accounts for 15,000-20,000 deaths per year. This relationship is not explained by geographic differences in "deaths of despair,'' general demand for opioids, or job losses from import competition. Our results suggest that fentanyl smuggling via imports is pervasive and a key determinant of opioid problems
Shifting Tax Incidence: Evidence from the Washington State Cannabis Market
[NBER WP 23632] (with K. Miller and C. Weber)
We provide the first general empirical test of tax invariance (TIV). When a 25 per-cent tax remitted by manufacturers was eliminated in Washington state and the retail cannabis excise tax was simultaneously increased from 25 to 37 percent—a shift in-tended to be revenue-neutral—TIV did not hold. Manufacturers kept two-thirds of their tax savings instead of passing all their savings through to retail firms via lower prices as predicted by TIV. One-third of the retail tax increase was passed on to consumers via higher retail prices – TIV would have predicted constant or even declining tax-inclusive retail prices.
Labor Reallocation and Remote Work During COVID-19: Real-time Evidence from GitHub
[NBER WP 29598] (with G. McDermott)
We investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on labor activity using real-time data from millions of GitHub users around the world. We show that the pandemic triggered a sharp pattern of labor reallocation at both the global and regional level. Users were more likely to work on weekends and outside of traditional 9 am to 6 pm hours, especially during the early phase of the pandemic. We also document considerable heterogeneity between different user groups and locations. Some locations show a steady reversion back to historical work patterns, while others have experienced persistent trend deviations in the wake of COVID-19. The pattern of labor reallocation is slightly more pronounced among males in our sample, suggesting that men may have benefited more from the increased flexibility provided by remote work than women. Finally, we show that the pattern of reallocation was accompanied by a simultaneous increase in overall activity, though this effect is more transient. We discuss several potential mechanisms and draw tentative conclusions for broader workplace trends given our study population.
Information and the Persistence of the Gender Wage Gap: Early Evidence from California's Salary History Ban
[NBER WP 27054] (with D. McNichols)
Aiming to reduce the gender wage gap, several states and cities have recently adopted legislation that prohibits employers from asking about previously earned salaries. The advocates of these salary history bans (SHBs) have suggested pay history perpetuates past discrimination. We study the early net impact of the first state-wide SHBs. Using both difference-in-difference and synthetic control approaches, we find the gender earnings ratio increased by 1 percent in states with SHBs. We find these population wide increases are driven by an increase of the gender earnings ratio for households with all children over 5 years old, by workers over 35, and are principally driven by those who have recently switched jobs.